Random Measures, ANOVA Models and Quantifying Uncertainty in Randomized Controlled Trials

This short paper introduces a novel approach to global sensitivity analysis of stochastic models, grounded in the variance-covariance structure of random variables derived from random measures. The proposed methodology facilitates the application of information-theoretic rules for uncertainty quantification, offering several advantages. Specifically, the approach provides insights into the decomposition of variance within discrete subspaces, similar to the standard ANOVA analysis. To illustrate this point, the method is applied to datasets obtained from the analysis of randomized controlled trials on evaluating the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine and assessing clinical endpoints in a lung cancer study.